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Titolo/Abstract/Parole chiave

METHODOLOGY FOR BIOMASS ENERGY POTENTIAL ESTIMATION: PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE POTENTIAL IN COLOMBIA

Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel Angel - Morini, Mirko - Pinelli, Michele - Spina, Pier Ruggero - Venturini, Mauro - Finkenrath, Matthias - Poganietz, Witold-Roger (2014) METHODOLOGY FOR BIOMASS ENERGY POTENTIAL ESTIMATION: PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE POTENTIAL IN COLOMBIA.

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    Abstract

    This paper presents a novel method to estimate the future biomass energy potential in countries with domestic markets unable to influence international markets. As a study case, the biomass energy potential in Colombia is estimated for the period 2010-2030. The prediction model is a scenario-based optimization algorithm that maximizes the yearly profit of locally producing and importing commodities in a country subject to certain constraints (domestic demand, limited area, etc.) as well as to demographic, macroeconomic and market data (e.g. domestic and international prices of commodities). The bioenergy potential associated to the production of commodities is calculated according to a methodology presented by the same authors. In order to provide a modeling framework consistent with other state-of-the-art projections, global scenarios for analysis are selected from the literature rather than formulated. Selected global scenarios highlight the influence of global biofuel use on agricultural prices, production and demand. Results predict a theoretical bioenergy potential in Colombia 56% to 69% larger in 2030 than in 2010 (1.31 - 1.41 EJ). A sensitivity analysis shows that while a higher global biofuel use lead to a higher local bioenergy potential, its influence is less pronounced than that of agricultural yields, demand and specific energy of biomass resources.

    Tipologia del documento:Articolo
    Data:Settembre 2014
    Istituzione:Università degli Studi di Ferrara
    Struttura:Dipartimento > Ingegneria
    Soggetti:Area 09 - Ingegneria industriale e dell'informazione > ING-IND/09 Sistemi per l'energia e l'ambiente
    Parole chiave:bio-energy, biofuels, energy potential, land use, prediction
    Numero identificativo:dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.03.056
    Depositato il:17 Giu 2016 10:26

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